You don’t have to be Einstein
One of the most frequently used ‘clever’ quotes for journalists and analysts alike is that the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over again and yet expecting different results. This is considered clever both because it is true and because it was said by Einstein, and some of his genius apparently rubs off by association. Well, you don’t have to be Einstein to see what madness we face around us at the moment on multiple fronts.
Lockdowns are being extended again in Europe, and in the UK most so. Once again, one must ‘stay at home’. Unless one needs to go shopping; or exercise; or has an essential job – which is a very long list. The police won’t be enforcing these rules in all probability, and parts of the public won’t comply. So it is the worst of all lockdowns, destroying the economy, but not virus transmission – which is the ONLY way to handle this matter once and for all.
Since Covid-19 first appeared, the objective logic was always clear: shut *everything* down for a short time to stop ALL transmission, and then only open up selectively with others who have been as careful. Instead, we see draconian yet loopholed regulations (“because markets”) that don’t get the virus R rate and total cases to 0; and then we rush to open up again and repeat the infection cycle all over again. I repeat, you really don’t have to be Einstein to see this.
Of course, now we have the vaccine – except if a vaccine-resistant strain were to emerge, as happens with other corona viruses. As noted yesterday, South Africa is worried enough about this already being true. OK Einstein – what should one do in the interim, and what are we doing instead? That’s right: maintaining international travel with South Africa, and more broadly, and just hoping this is *not* the case. “Because markets”.
“What’s that huge fin in the water, guys?”
“Could be a dolphin, or it might be a shark. Let’s keep swimming until we find out which.”
Yes, it’s a tail risk (or a fin risk), but if the virus mutates before we vaccinate everyone, then we start this loop all over again. OK, we can tweak the vaccine. Yet doing so, re-producing it, and then re-distributing it again would take at least another six months, time in which these more [ … ]