Will we be living on the moon or in a cave?
When I made my predictions for the computer industry for 2014, a number readers suggested that I make predictions for 2064. With some anxiety, I decided to sign up for that and started by stepping back into 1964 and asking myself what I would have predicted back then. You can read that here.
When I try to think about the year 2064, my mind almost explodes. Of course, I will probably not be around to see if I was right but then again you never know. Just today I got a link about a woman who is 109 years old who is still has it together and is playing the piano. She is 50 years older than I am now.
So many things will influence the development of technology that it is really difficult to imagine how it would be possible to predict. Climate change, resource depletion, terrorism, effective political systems, and the collapse of currencies are just some of the negative factors that could influence the development of technology. While on the positive side there is the potential of ever increasing computing power and in particular quantum computing, bio engineering – including genetic engineering, discoveries of neuroscience, anti-aging, the invention or discovery of new fuels are just a few of the things that could also influence the development of technology.
I am going to try to focus on a pretty positive scenario not because I believe that, but because it will make for more enjoyable reading. Everything I will write about is something I truly believe could happen.
This is going to be a series of blog posts because I want to be able to go into depth on each one. Then I will summarize them all in one final post on this topic.
First Prediction for 2064: You won’t be using Google, you will be Google
Over the years I have thought a lot about how humans and computers will be able to communicate effectively. If you think of the power of the human mind and think about the power of something like Google Search, you realize that we have a very low bandwidth interface between the two. For a human to receive information from Google currently, the human types or speaks or selects some words, then Google does its work and comes back with some more words, or photos or video. Then the human mind might use that information to make another query. Google gets better at doing its job not only because it is “indexing” more and more information, because there is more and more information available, but also because it is tied into the collective consciousness of all the human beings that use it. It learns from our behavior. Google is getting a lot smarter and lot faster than humans but we humans still possess one of the great miracles of nature, the human brain. There seems to be very little limitations placed on the Google Mind which is at a very early stage of development. Our human minds are at a very advanced state of development but I also believe they may expand in a number of ways that I will go into in future posts. Right now, I am going to focus on the interface between these two “minds”.
As I just mentioned, we have a very limited, low bandwidth interface. What is really bad about this limitation is that it requires our conscious minds to do the interacting when the real power of the human mind is in the subconscious. David Eagelman writes about this in his very engaging book, Incognito which I can definitely [ … ]