President Trump has long claimed that the “Silent Majority” that elected him will again see him through.
When first elected, America’s two most recent GOP presidents lost the popular vote. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by about 2.9 million popular votes but lost, 306-232, in the Electoral College. In 1976, had 9,800 votes flipped in Ohio and Hawaii, President Gerald Ford would have defeated Jimmy Carter, despite the Democrat’s margin of 1.7 million more votes. In 1960, John F. Kennedy edged Richard Nixon by 110,000 votes out of 69 million; however, a switch of under 30,000 votes in Illinois and Texas would’ve elected Nixon.
In 2020, the Trump-Pence ticket can feasibly lose by nearly 6 million popular votes and be re-elected.
1. Big margins in states that were blue in 2016 won’t help
Well, first: most of the demographic changes are transpiring in states that are the least significant in terms of determining Electoral College outcomes. While conservatives believe the country is changing far too fast, it’s not changing fast enough to substantially help Biden-Harris in this election.
Joe Biden could run up enormous margins in New York, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, Connecticut, Washington, D.C., and Delaware, while racking up respectable margins in Rhode Island, New Mexico, Oregon, Hawaii, Washington, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. Biden-Harris presently leads in Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire. From those states, a national popular vote margin that doubles Clinton’s could result. However, I believe that Trump will carry Ohio, Florida and Texas, and every Southern state except for Virginia, and every Midwestern state except Illinois and Minnesota, and, possibly, Michigan. [ … ]